By Steve Hynd
James Joyner reacts to the news that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ordering an examination into Mousavi's claims of vote rigging:
almost identically to O.J. Simpson�s announcement upon acquital that he would begin a search for �the real killer.�
Yup, that was my first reaction too. But an update to the AP's story says that the Mousavi rally, which had been banned, is going ahead peaceably so far. Tens of thousands have marched while "anti-riot stood by with their helmets off and shields at their sides." Maybe Khamenei now actually believes he and Ahmadinejad had tried to take too big a bite. Ali Ansari, as astute an observer of Iranian affairs as there is, writes in the Guardian today that "This is about reshaping the country in a particular image. It can broadly be defined as conservative, Islamic and autocratic."
The trouble is that the legitimacy they crave has evaded them. Far from being a fait accompli, they face a �crisis of authority entirely of their own invention. The people being beaten on the streets are not members of the "north Tehran elite" who happen to be bored. People are angry; and people feel humiliated by a government and establishment that appear to have taken their submission for granted. This is a dangerous game to play, to raise expectations and to dash them with such reckless abandon. The protests are broader � socially and �geographically � than they have been since the revolution, but perhaps more important, they now include �disaffected members of the revolutionary elite. If these wounds are not healed quickly and judiciously, they may not heal at all.
From Nico Pitney's coverage at Huffington Post:Another emailer, Reza, is even more pessimistic: "Please put the Supreme Leader's request to probe the election results in perspective for your readers. The body that will be probing election is appointed by the Supreme Leader and all its members are hardliners and backers of Ahmadinejad and his policies. This is nothing but a sham in an attempt to extinguish the fever for change that's taking hold in the country."
ReplyDeleteThere is a reason not many people use a pressure cooker anymore. The modest improvement in cooking expediency must be balanced with the catastrophic consequences of the lid blowing off. I would have thought the Mullahs had learned that lesson before they took over the kitchen.
ReplyDeleteSteve more grist for the mill. SPIEGEL ONLINE has a short interview with Flynt Leverett about the election. He concludes that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won and that the irregularities� reported by Mousavi are - my word - trivial.
ReplyDeleteI'm smiling at his conclusion about what D.C. will do: "They will be paralyzed for a while ... "