The Iranian Election

By Steve Hynd

Things are still confused in Iran, it seems. Although Ahmadinejad has been declared the winner, it's entirely unclear whether that's the result of a popular landslide or a massive bit of election-rigging. Robert Mackay, who has been live-blogging the election for the NYT, points out that Ahmadinejad's support is strongest in rural areas while Moussavi has his strongholds in exactly the kind of well-off Tehran suburbs where Western media are most likely to tread. At the Guradian, Abbas Barzegar develops that idea saying that "Iran isn't Tehran" and that Western observers have indulged in some major wishful thinking in hoping that reformist Moussavi would win.

Back in March, when Khatami dropped out, I wrote that Mousavi was a "compromise by grey man", like John Kerry in '04, and unable to inspire or captivate the way Khatami might have.

There are protest riots in Moussavi-supporting areas of Tehran, though, as the latter insists he was the one who really won. Dave Schuler points out that there's not a lot of evidence of a vote-rigging coup so far other than Moussavi's protestations, although Andrew Sullivan has Exhibit A.

They didn't even attempt to disguise the fraud. Which, to me, tells me they panicked. This graph is a red flag to Iran and the world.

 Brian Ulrich is also sure what's happened:

One possible explanation for today's results is that the people of Iran voted Mahmood Ahmadinejad in for another term. Despite his mangling of the economy, they still liked his anti-corruption crusade and strong foreign policy stance. While there was some vote-rigging, his margin was convincing enough that he was the clear victor.

Given the build-up to the election, and particularly the rhetoric deployed in the days leading up to it, however, I'm inclined to believe that we have just witnessed a seizure of power by an axis consisting of Ahmadinejad, Khamene'i, and the elite military and paramilitary units. This has gone against not only the popular will, but other powerful figures within the establishment, such as Rafsanjani.

And Brian cites rumors via Laura Rozen that Moussavi had been arrested by security forces, although those rumors seem to have disappeared from the post Brian links to.

It's a sad day either way and as Dave Schuler also points out, we now need to deal with the reality on the ground. Still some Westerners will be happy. Neocons like Daniel Pipes - who once described Moslems as "brown-skinned peoples cooking strange foods and not exactly maintaining Germanic standards of hygiene" - will be delighted that they can continue to bang the war drums rather than deal with a more moderate Iranian president.