By Fester:
War is politics by other means. And Politics is economics by other means.
Two tautologies, where the first is stronger then the second, but useful thoughts as people fight to achieve certain goals, and most goals have substitutes that are available. Cash, prestige, recognition are often viable substitutes. The combination of untraceable cash, a recognition of Anbari elite tribal power structures and influence and a dramatic reduction in hostilities underlies the short term success of the Anbar Awakening movement. The elites were willing to be bought out and bring their followers with them.
The same lesson could be applied in Afghanistan as some Taliban elements are apparantely willing to be bought out, or at least leased at attractive rates.
Diplomats said they believed officials had "bought" a temporary truce until next month's presidential election for �20,000.
One senior Western diplomat said he feared it was part of a plot to manipulate the vote in Badghis province in north-west Afghanistan.
20,000 pounds is roughly $40,000. This bribe will buy the Kabul government a month of quiet in a single district. The marginal US soldier costs the US government about $100,000 per year, or roughly 2.5 months of peace in the district at the going rate. Roughly 5 US soldiers marginal costs could fund the pay-offs and comparative peace in this district per year.
The US government is expanding the Army by 22,000 soldiers to partially deal with the higher op-tempo of surging to Afghanistan while reconstituting from the Iraq withdrawal. That will cost roughly 4,000 local truce buy-outs per year if the US adapts minimal goals. Bribery and basic goals work.
War is politics by other means. And Politics is economics by other means.
ReplyDeleteBut these also serve as premises by which the logical deduction becomes, to no one's astonishment, that War is Economics.