By Fester:
Recognizing reality is often a very good thing. It allows for the quicker and more accurate correction of mis-orientation and mistakes, and it reduces friction and fog. Let's take a look at who has the power in Afghanistan.
CanWest has a short piece on tribal politics and survival instincts:
"If the Dutch leave, this is bad news," Daoud said over tea. "A lot
of people will leave the area and I will be the first of them.
"This
is not only my voice but the voice of my people. If it happens, I will
make a hard decision. If it is safe, I will go to the Taliban for
protection. If it isn't, I will go abroad."
The official government is not seen as a capable protector or patron. Some of it is due to the tribal politics mentioned in the article, but some is due to the reality of power on the ground. ISAF and NATO forces can beat down the Taliban in open fighting, the Taliban dominates the unobserved edges, and the Afghan government is a distant player with minimal influence.
Registan is reporting on the Afghan government truce talks with Taliban aligned fighters north of Herat, and asks the very basic question of why:
And it sure as hell won�t means the peace�assuming it lasts�will
continue afterward. This is just bad news all around. The Taliban have
the momentum; why would they lay down their arms now?
The details of the truce are simple --- the Taliban will giver sufferance to the Afghan government to conduct an election in the district. It is indicative of relative power levels that the government which is supposed to hold sway in most of the country can not hold an election without the Taliban's permission in the supposedly secure or at least quieter northwestern portion of the country.
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