Young voters not so super

By Fester:

The great political question for the next few years is whether or not the Obama primary coalition is replicable for any Democratic politician of the right persuasion.  Can liberal/progressive politicians mobilize college educatied voters as well as non-college educated non-white voters and young voters of all races in sufficient quantities to win on a frequent basis?  That is the question in Pittsburgh for any city or county-wide race, and right now that question is no.  I think there is one or two politicians who can bridge the 14th and 7th Wards to the Busway communities, but they are not running in races where that is required. 

Localizing the Obama coalition in Pittsburgh has not occurred.  Young voters are not voting in the primaries at any observable rate.  Primaries in Pittsburgh are where structural shifts in the electorate will have immediate impact as most offices are only competetive at the primary stage and not during the general election.  Chris Briem as always has the graphs and the analysis:

Yes that is saying that even for the folks who actually voted in the
fall, but are under say 25 or so... the probability that they voted in
the spring primary here is under 10%. That's for folks who voted just a
few months earlier. The actual percentage of folks in those age groups
who voted overall is an even lower percentage.

AARP eligible voters are the first voters who top 40% return voting in the primary, and early Social Security eligible voters were the first group where more than half the general election voters came back to vote in the primary.  This is why Pittsburgh Democrats are comparatively conservative on most non-union related issues, their electorate is comparatively conservative on any issue that does not impact their pension. 

I think there is a massive opportunity for a structural change in the primary electorate that could tilt the incentives in a more liberal direction:

If organizations like America Votes or the League of Young Voters take
their 2006 and 2008 federal election lists to search for voters who
voted in the four big elections (both primaries and both general
elections) that creates a pool of interested and involved young voters.
From this pool, contacts should be made to push people to vote in the
off-year municipal primary and general election. This will be rather
expensive on a per new voter basis but if this program could be
maintained for two off-year cycles (2011 and 2013), the pool of super
voters will be greatly expanded and it will be significantly younger.

At
that point, the voter universe that these off-year, low turn-out, low
information campaigns is signifcantly younger, and if the targetting is
down a quarter strategically, a bit more liberal. The younger and newer
super-voters are now on the campaign's radar screens

However, until either an effort like the one I described above occurs, or there is a secular shift in young voter participation patterns, the Obama primary coalition will remain a one-off event that is alluring but fundamentally unattainable for other candidates who want to run city, county and region-wide while counting on the liberal bloc as a key primary coalition member.