By Dave Anderson:
Right now, plenty of Democratic incumbents or candidates seeking to replace fellow Democrats are in trouble. Corzine is down by half a dozen in New Jersey, Deeds is down by a dozen in Virginia, Ritter is trailing in Colorado for a 2010 match-up, and the Senate situation which a month or two ago had a central tendency of netting zero to two more seats for Democrats looks to be at best a break-even proposition to a probable loss of three or four seats. Obama's popularity and job approval ratings are falling.
The Daily Kos tracking poll was just released and it has a few interesting cross-tabs to examine. The most important is where the drop in Obama's approval is coming from. The biggest incremental drop in approval is from Democrats in the past week.
Across the board, the drops among Obama and the Democratic Party have come not from the loyal opposition, nor have they come from dismayed Independents.
They have come from Democrats....
Anyone who thinks the protracted arguments over health care aren't frustrating the Democratic base need look no further. A ten-point dip in net favorability, in a single week, is a pretty solid statement.
Kevin Drum looks at a highly probable source of frustration --- the massive difference between what candidate Obama and all the newly elected Democrats from the 2006 and 2008 waves promised Democrats that they would fight for and deliver and what President Obama and the assorted freshly minted Congress-critters have delivered:
There's always a narrative behind presidential victories, and there always will be, despite the fact that 90% of them are dead wrong. Obama ran an excellent primary campaign and a perfectly decent general election campaign, but the latter boiled down to one word: "Change." That's what most elections boil down to: "Time for a change" vs. "Experience counts."
Right now the Democratic base wants healthcare reform, single payer if possible, strong public option as a minimum, wants out of Afghanistan, wants out of Iraq, and wants Wall Street beaten up. And right now, the Democratic base is being told to lube up for health-care co-ops that will be hobbled and incapable of doing any systemic transformation, escalation in Afghanistan, and somewhat sternly worded letters and finger wagging at Wall Street. And oh yeah, the economy sucks even if we have hit a GDP bottom, there won�t be any new jobs or higher wages for a long time to come if ever, even as state subsidized and protected banks roll in profits again.
A couple of victories for the Democratic portion of the electorate would do one hell of a job improving Democratic Party chances in 2010 as well as actually be good policy.
"Right now the Democratic base wants healthcare reform, single payer if possible, strong public option as a minimum, wants out of Afghanistan, wants out of Iraq, and wants Wall Street beaten up"
ReplyDeleteThe problem for every administration regardless of party is that "the base" is not the country. "The base" is not even a majority of the minority of Americans who bother to vote. Some of the "the base" can also be counted on to use inopportune moments to be completely unreasonable and make statements/gestures that make their whole party look temporarily insane. Think Pat Buchanan running for president in the GOP primaries in 1992 hoisting a rifle over his head - that's an angry base in action.
Obscure and esoteric issues can be conceded to the base. On a transformative initiative, any president wants to roll into Congress with as close to 60 % public support for "x" as can be mustered. Obama does not have 60 % because a) most people like their health coverage but just want it to be cheaper, and b) Old people fear health care reform means less coverage/more costs for Medicare, which it will, barring a giant pot of money appearing tomorrow.