By Fester:
Steve has already covered the act of war stupidity portion of gasoline import sanctions against Iran. I want to look at the effectiveness of sanctions as a coercion tool portion of stupidity.
The idea behind the gasoline import sanctions is that Iran is a modern society that relies on burning petroleum to function. Iran is a large net exporter of crude petroleum but a large net importer (mainly from India) of refined fuel products. IF there is a gasoline/diesel shortage, modern Iran will suffer a phase transition downwards towards less complexity which will undermine either Iran's already struggling domestic economy, or the security forces that are loyal to the current regime. At this point, the already mobilized masses will be able to successfully revolt because they have been either reinforced by more people who once had something but now lost it, or the coercive repression capacity of the state has diminished because the Basji, Revolutionary Guards and the Army ran out of gas or can not pay its members.
That is the gist of the theory. This was the theory behind sanctions on Hussein era Iraq, Yugoslavia, South Africa, North Korea and Cuba. This is also the gist behind every strategic bombing campaign conducted by the United States. Inflict sufficient generalized pain on the economic structure of a modern state so as to crater enemy morale and force internal domestic political cohesion to fail. That has not worked yet.
Sanctions can weaken a state, but the state has two defense mechanisms against internal collapse. The first is the basic nationalism trope of "those foreigners are trying to kill the good and decent people of XYZ." Castro's Cuba has perfected this internal dissention control trope but it is a common one. I imagine the Iranian hardliners who already are engaged in a symbiotic relationship with Western hardliners or mutual animosity to create internal support will be able to exploit this classic. Secondly, the state is able to distribute the limited goods that can break through a tight blockade as favors towards its friends and allies. The Army will get paid even if everyone else starves.
So why the hell are sanctions and blockade being proposed unless it is a demonstration of "DOING SOMETHING" for internal US political consumption. This is just stupid and counter-productive.
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
ReplyDelete~Albert Einstein
Good point and what I'm about to say doesn't contradict your point, but Sanctions do have some functionality. You have to look at a bigger picture. An important point is they are more about us than them. Here are a few functions:
ReplyDelete1- The threat turning to reality prevents future badboys from being conceived. Though in Iran's case it can be argued that it actually serves as the opposite owing to the lack of palatable options.
2- It is about manipulating the domestic audience for further, more aggressive, actions.
3- Sanctions help some ignorant insecure jingoists and whackos feel better about their expiration date.
I think the last one is the reason at play here.