The Next Dark Age?

Commentary By Ron Beasley

In the post Peak Oil and a Brick Wall I discussed briefly how peak oil is upon us.  So what does this mean.  Peak oil itself is not important, we will feel it when demand exceeds supply.  That won't happen gradually � it will be like running full speed into a brick wall.  That may, and some say likely, will result in a breakdown of society � a new Dark Ages.  Before we continue lets take a look at the original Dark  Ages for a little background.

The �Dark Ages�, the period after the fall of the Roman Empire, has gotten bad reputation.  In part it's because the term, Dark Ages has a  bad ring to it.  A better term might be the "Post Roman Paradigm Shift".  The Roman Empire was marked  by social system where most labor was done by slaves and in fact most of the population were slaves.  Labor was cheap so there was virtually no technological innovation.  Life was very hard for the slave majority.  The fall of the Roman Empire represents a paradigm shift  which was a positive shift for the majority. 

The slave society of the Roman hegemony was replaced by the manorial society.  The slaves became serfs who although they were still bound to the lord of the manor had rights in addition to duties.  Unlike the slaves the serfs were full members of their communities who elected their own officials, made and enforced their own laws and made everyday work decisions.  In fact the majority  were living better lives than many of the citizens of Rome a few decades before.  Labor was no longer scorned  or cheap so there was technological innovation to improve productivity.  Examples of that innovation  include wind and water mills, the heavy wheeled plow and a harness that increased the tractive power of draft animals.  Increased productivity meant increasing products and a growing economy.  This set Europe up for the Industrial Revolution.

(The following is based on material from Chris Martenson. You can watch the video at the bottom of the page)

As we can see the original Dark Age wasn't that dark and resulted in a new paradigm that was positive. This Dark Age will be more painful.  The world after the fall of the Roman Empire did not depend on a depleted resource (oil) and there were no over population issues.  We live in an incredibly complex society with a growing population and a financial system that requires constant economic growth. The problem is �social complexity relies on excess energy� and it's that excess we are about to lose.  

When we think about energy we tend to concentrate on cost and supply.  This is a serious mistake � we should be looking at Net Energy or EroEI (Energy Return on Energy Investment).  It takes energy to find and produce energy.  The available or Net energy is the energy out divided by the energy in.  This ratio is not constant.  

The picture above shows the available energy in green and the energy investment in red.  When we first started producing oil that ratio was 100:1, very good. Basically you punched a hole in the ground and oil gushed out. Our society was based on that ratio.   That oil is all gone and the ratio has become smaller.  Today that ratio is down to 3:1. As you can see the alternative sources of tar sands and oil shale are even less.  Ethanol from corn is worse and may not even be a break even. 

Solar and wind power are pretty good and probably come in at a 20:1 ratio.  They produce electricity not the liquid fuel our transportation infrastructure is set up to deliver and at this point there is probably not enough time or money to make the switch fast enough. And coal is not the answer, the video below explains that we have already mined all the good coal just like we have already pumped all the good oil.

The lack of energy from oil will also impact the supply of other commodities.  The energy to produce them will become increasingly scarce while the sources remaining require more energy.

All of the above indicates we will experience no or even negative growth when our financial system requires constant growth. The result � a collapse of the financial system.

So what will happen.  Remember what we said above:

1. We live in an incredibly complex society
   


2. Social complexity relies on excess energy

A new Dark Age? - And soon?  It may well represent a new paradigm but it will not be without initial pain.  If we had recognized the problem and started to make changes 30 years ago we might have been able to mitigate the problems we are about to see.  It would be easy to blame the politicians and special interest groups but what politician could have won reelection with a platform of radical change and doing with less?  Watch the video for additional details.

Check out the rest of Chris Martenson's "Crash Course"