By Steve Hynd
Given recent murmerings from China, this is very interesting and I can't figure out whether the Taliban jumped on those murmerings or were pushed by elements in Pakistan's military: they've appealed to the SCO for help sorting out the mess in Afghanistan.
"We call on Shanghai Cooperation Organization to assist countries in the region against colonialists and adopt a strong stance against the occupation of Afghanistan," according to the letter readout to media from undisclosed location.
It also said that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (name of ousted Taliban regime) would establish friendly relations with allthe neighboring states after the expulsion of foreign troops from Afghanistan.
In the letter, the Taliban outfit asked the SCO "not to trust the propaganda of the colonial powers as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan would not damage any country and would rather open the door for strengthening peace, stability and economic cooperation in the region."
Written in Pashtu -- one of the two official languages of Afghanistan and spoken by the majority of Taliban militants -- theletter also accused the international troops of killing Afghans, adding that "both NATO and U.S. forces in the excuse of fighting terrorists have been killing the people of Afghanistan."
At the beginning of the month, China's major government-run English-language daily ran an op-ed by a senior Chinese policy thinker in a clear indication of where China is going with Af/Pak. That op-ed called for a UNSC peacekeeping force to take over from the U.S.-led, NATO-based coalition in Afghanistan. If such a force was to materialize, the SCO would be the obvious lead organisation - it includes all the relevant neighbours as either members or observers. Also, China would be the obvious lead nation - there are only two other nations on earth could provide the manpower peacekeeping in Afghanistan can provide and it's not going to be Russia given the history of Afghanistan. But with the other SCO nations involved Tajiks and other minorities in Afghanistan would be safer from Taliban/Pashtun blowback than any other U.S. exit plan I've seen even in speculation.
There's a fair bit to like in such a plan, for almost all concerned. The US gets out of a quagmire intact, China gets resources and the chance to act like a super-power. Russia gets regional stability, the other SCO nations get increased trade and the opportunity to act beneficially on the world stage. Pakistan gets strategic depth. The main losers would be Al Qaida, the Pakistani Taliban and India. The latter would need some pretty big economic carrots from China and America to swallow losing short-term influence in Afghanistan to its Chinese rival. But India would benefit too from removal of Pakistan's reasons to use proxies and in the longer term from the chance to grow into the super-power it should be without having to waste energy on Pakistan or China for at least a couple of decades.
I'll stick my neck out and predict that China will propose some solution along these lines sometime in the next 12 months.
Update: This essay from Niklas Norling at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute on China's rapidly growing investment in Afghanistan and this from the European Council on Foreign Relations are highly relevant to the discussion. The 2008 ECFR piece, entitled "Can China Save Afghanistan?", anticipated China's recent policy trial balloon well, in particular when it notes China's influence over Pakistan's military.
Very nice analysis Steve. I think you are exactly right (otherwise I probably wouldn't have thought it so nice :) I don't think India necessarily suffers if, as you point out, the agreement helps the Pakistani military to disengage from covert support of the Taliban, which they have done in most part in pursuit of strategic depth. Disengagement there can lead to disengagement from groups that are targeting India. There is already incentive to do that because of the actions of the Pakistani Taliban, but an agreement like this would seal it. Also, the Chinese have much more influence on Pakistan (see Lal Masjid) than the US and would provide the necessary incentives to the Pakistani military. The SCO provides the perfect framework for such an agreement. All in all a great solution to the problem. I am not sure that the solution will look at all attractive to the US - or at least the current establishment in the US. I'll stick my neck out and say that unless the situation deteriorates dramatically the US will say no to any such solution.
ReplyDeleteForget UN, a SAARC peacekeeping force is the solution.
ReplyDeleteWhile China might want to influence any peacekeeping force in Afghanistan, the powers that be in the west are unlikely to allow this. Even otherwise, with China having no experience whatsoever of peacekeeping and with a culture vastly different from the region, any UN operation with substantial Chinese presence will be dead on arrival.
What we need instead is a SAARC peacekeeping force. (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation of which both Afghanistan and Pakistan are members). India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are the biggest manpower contributors to the UN missions. Compared to the tens of thousands of peacekeepers from these countries in UN operations, China I think has contributed less 1000 in its entire history!
Let the NATO forces get out of Afghanistan. They are very much a colonial force with no reason to be in Afghanistan. Let the Pashtun dominated regions be under the watch of Pakistani forces, while the rest of Afghanistan will be looked after by India, Bangaladesh, Nepal, Srilanka, Maldives and Bhutan.
US can continue to operate against Al-Qaeda but not against Taliban. Meaning, they can indulge in special operations with help from Pakistani Army to specifically target Al-Qaeda leaders. But certainly no carpet bombing of the Pashtun areas on both sides of the Durand line.
The other member countries of SAARC share the culture of Afghanistan and also have extensive experience in peacekeeping operations. Its downright stupid not to use a SAARC force in Afghanistan.
throw in resolution of claims in Jammu / Kashmir and you have a deal!!
ReplyDeletewe can let china "administer" it..