By David Anderson:
All else being equal and held constant, time is on the side of the insurgent or non-state force that is seeking to delegitimate the state based actors. This is because the existence of an active non-state force is in and of itself an expression of the state's loss of its monopoly on violence. It is a basic existence claim and dis-proof of the state's trade of security for power.
This is important everywhere, but it is best illustrated from this NarcoNews report on Mexico:
Ask the people of Juarez, who received the Mexican Military with jubilation, if they still want soldiers on their streets. Ask the people of Monterrey. Ask the people of Morelia.
Now they yearn for the old status quo, which was bad, because this is worse. The opinion is widespread: As bad as cartels fighting amongst themselves might be, it is now coupled with two other bad things. The cartels have been "dehumanized;" that is, their violence has become blind. And the Military, supposed agent of civilized life, is violating both civilians' and criminals' human rights.
In other words, for millions of Mexicans the so-called war has turned into a way of life amidst extreme violence.
A State that places all of its power in the Military ought to know that if it doesn't win the war, it will be declared impotent.
That's what's happening in the militarized cities: the Military's persistence in the streets while daily life is getting worse seems to demonstrate the State's incompetence, and the people become demoralized and drown in desperation. Now there's no one to turn to, say the people of Juarez. If the Military failed, nothing can fix this.
Legitimacy is the key center of gravity in US COIN thinking, and becoming an ineffective joke is deadly.
No comments:
Post a Comment