By Dave Anderson:
One of the things that I mentioned yesterday in my Haiti earthquake post was a reference to making Haiti the world's largest refugee camp:
Haiti will soon turn into the largest refugee camp in the world. The
Dominican Republic will seek to control its border and the US Coast
Guard will interdict any mass refugee afloat.
That comment came from talking to an individual who is extremely well connected to the US disaster management community. We spun out a scenario where a mass of people would attempt to make a run for the sea as soon as the initial shock wore off and some resources could be assembled. And once we got to second order impacts, the scenario starts to hit destabilizing non-linear situations. If we start seeing mass migration, it is time to invest in plastic and micro-fabrication plants.
Gahlran at Information Dissemination provides a little more information and context to our speculation:
The annual immigration season from Haiti to Florida by sea usually
begins in February every year. If it has historically been easy for
Haitians to choose the risks of sea immigration when they have a home
and family, how much easier is it for a Haitian to risk the dangerous
journey when their home is destroyed or family is dead? This is a critical point,
because the US is in big trouble if 100,000 people, or potentially a
lot more, attempt a massive migration at sea following this
catastrophe. The Obama administration is going to have to spend money -
potentially many billion dollars - to keep three million homeless
people in Haiti....Do the math. How many soldiers does your COIN manual say it takes to control a population of 3 million homeless, hungry people...
Even if we count the 2nd Brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division and 2
Marine battalions, we come up well short of what will be necessary
based on the doctrine for population security adopted by our lessons
learned in Iraq and Afghanistan....
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