By Dave Anderson:
Michael Steele, chairman of the Republican National Committee, would have a good election night if the Republicans picked up a net of half a dozen seats in the Senate, and thirty seats in the House. He would have an amazing night if the Republicans picked up clear majorities in both chambers. At that point, he would be streaking K-Street as he was running to thank C-Street Democrats for helping to fracture the Democratic base. So what else would need to happen for Michael Steele to run naked through Washington?
- December 2009 through July 2010 employment reports where the net gain in jobs per month never goes above 50,000. Unemployment will continue to be above 10% as the gain in jobs does not even cover natural population growth.
- Numerous left-wing primaries against Blue Dogs in R+5 or better districts.
- Democrats wimping out as they do not pass anything that could vaguely resemble a bill that beats up on Wall Street. Right wing economic populism for the rich would have a clear and uncontested hold on the Perot voters.
- Teabaggers losing several primaries including the Florida, Kentucky and Connecticut Senate races.
- Democrats continue to not mention George W. Bush or his policy failures.
- Beau Biden deciding to take a pass on challenging Mike Castle
- Democrats continue to not mention George W. Bush or Dick Cheney.
- Republican fundraising picks up.
- Republicans hold their retirements to a minimum, while Democrats in swing and lean Republican districts retire in droves.
So what would election night look like for Michael Steele if he was to streak K-Street.
- Democratic stronghold of New England would be broken as Ayotte and Simmons pick up a pair of Senate seats there.
- Castle cruises to an easy election, and Toomey wins a nail-biter in Pennsylvania
- Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Florida prove to be remarkably easy defenses.
- Arkansas, and Colorado were quick flips, and Nevada turns against its machinery advantage as well as seniority advantage by voting against Reid.
- North Dakota sees a blow-out win as Gov. Hoeven decides to run against Dorgan for no good reason.
- Illinois embraces Kirk despite voting overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008.
- Ben Nelson and Mary Landrieu call Mitch McConnell and offer to flip caucuses as long as their Medicaid amendments for their respective states are protected.
That is the Senate, and it is an extremely unlikely scenario, but vaguely plausible. The House is an easier case for a streaking Steele:
- GOP cleans up in the white South, and pick off 25+ seats without losing more than 3 counter-balancing seats including LA-3.
- GOP pick up the WTF seats of ID-1 and MD-8.
- GOP pick-ups in NH-1 and NH-2 and one of the three CT seats that they held as recently as 2006-2008.
- GOP picking up at least 2 seats in New York, and 2 seats in Pennsylvania (choose some combination of PA-3,4, 12, and 7)
- Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Illinois each provide a net flip of 2 seats to the GOP.
- Colorado sees two seats flip.
- New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and California each see at least one seat flip to provide a narrow cushion for the new Republican majority.
- Democrats don't pick up any open seat besides Delaware At-Large
Numerous left-wing primaries against Blue Dogs in R+5 or better districts.
ReplyDeleteDepending on the Blue Dog prospects in these districts, I don't see this as anything to celebrate on the right. If you're going to win a district, better to win it against another conservative and reaffirm the GOP as the conservative party. Fighting a more progressive candidate in an R+5 district is going to start shifting battle lines and draw out previously untapped voters.
Either the GOP candidate stays hard right and ignores a grass roots liberal support of a fresh Dem candidate, or he tacks to the left and opens himself up to a Tea Bagging.
Teabaggers losing several primaries including the Florida, Kentucky and Connecticut Senate races.
The GOP doesn't really win if teabaggers lose. The very presence of a teabagger in the primary demonstrates a major fracture that will cost the Republican votes in the general.
What Michael Steele needs to see is self-proclaimed teabaggers who vocally support the mainstream Republican candidate. Then the GOP can tap teabagger activism and fund raising without significantly changing its own policy.
A narrow teabagger defeat - for instance, a thin Rubio loss to Crist in Florida - wouldn't do the party any favors, particularly if Rubio decides to pull a NY-23 and run as a third-party candidate in the general anyway.
I don't think it will take much for Republicans to have a good evening on the first Tuesday of November 2010. Just maintain the current congressional leadership.
ReplyDeleteIn shorter, all that needs to happen for the GOP to have a good year is for the GOP to put up candidates with a minimum of organization and for the Democrats continue to destroy their own base while doing everything they can to deliver to corporate America.
ReplyDeleteGiven that the GOP only needs one senate pickup to render America completely ungovernable, the most likely outcome for the next few cycles is a slippery slope to the right as the left flank simply refuses to vote.
Palin has burned too many bridges to be president, but one of her fellow teabaggers will ride Democratic failure to victory.