By Dave Anderson:
Tim Kaine, chair of the Democratic National Committee, would have a very good year if the Democrats only experience a net loss of a couple of seats in the Senate and a dozen House seats. He would run naked through the streets of Washington if the Democrats picked up net seats in the Senate and lost no more than ten net seats in the House. What would need to happen for us to see Tim Kaine streak?
- January 26, 2010 ---- Healthcare reform is signed into law
- February 10, 2010 --- Jane Hamsher and Firedoglake decide to only attempt to primary Democrats in D+7 or better districts
- February 11, 2010 Beau Biden deciding to challenge Mike Castle
- February 14, 2010 --- Repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell is introduced into the House Defense budget plan
- March 17, 2010 --- Preliminary February employment (seasonally adjusted) shows a net gain of 37,000 jobs
- April 14, 2010 --- Preliminary March employment shows a net gain of 110,000 jobs
- April 16, 2010 --- 1st Quarter GDP estimated at 4.7%
- April, May, June, July --- multiple Establishment GOP v. Tea-Bagger open and Dem held seat primary battles
- May 19, 2010 --- Rand Paul wins the Kentucky GOP Senate primary
- May 20, 2010 --- Preliminary April employment gains of 180,000 jobs
- Wall Street Re-Regulation Act is passed and the Dems were smart enough to insert several atomic wedgies into the bill to split the right wing populists and the GOP donor base.
- August 10, 2010 --- Linda McMahon wins the Connecticut GOP Senate primary
- August 24, 2010 --- Marco Rubio wins the Florida GOP Senate primary
- September 16, 2010 --- Three heavy combat brigades are left in Iraq
- September 17, 2010 ---August employment shows a gain of 287,000 new jobs
- October 16, 2010 --- September employment shows a gain of 300,000 new jobs
And then comes election night:
Democratic pick-ups in New Hampshire, Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky and Florida (thanks Teabaggers). Dodd, Reid and Beau Biden all have nail-biting tough holds as the combination of the money advantage and a reactivated Democratic base save their bacon. Illinois was a surprisingly easy hold.
Blanche Lincoln and Michael Bennett have the distinction of being the first Democratic Senate incumbents to lose since 2004. The Democrats come out of 2010 with a net of +3 Senators mainly due to the the incompetence of the Republicans in destroying at least two electable candidates in Kentucky and Florida, and giving an assist in CT for Dodd (although the beat up on Wall Street Act helped as well)
The House was a different story. The Southern white Democrats got wallopped. 2 Virginia, 2 North Carolina, 1 South Carolina, 1 Georgia, 1 Alabama, 2 Kentucky, 3 Texas, 1 Louisiana, 2 Tennessee 2 Florida and 1 Mississippi Democratic seats flipped. The WTF seats also flipped in Idaho and Maryland. Four other Democratic seats also flipped elsewhere in the nation. This puts a swing of 24 seats towards the Republicans.
However the Dems had a counter-balancing as the Northeast Democrats played a strong defense and kept New England solid blue and picked off one more seat in New Jersey. Pennsylvania was the odd-ball case, as PA-3, 4,7, 10 and 12 were all successfully defended after massive investments by the DCCC, and the Dems had a surprise pick-up in PA-19 (as the incumbent Republican got teabagged) as well as the expected pick-up in PA-6. Ohio also saw a series of nail-biting defenses. Florida, Illinois and California each delivered two new Dem seats, including Kirk's seat as he challenged for the Senate, while Delaware, Michigan, Louisiana, and Washington produced a flip for the Dems.
At this point, Tim Kaine is running naked down Pennsylvania Avenue as he had a great night.
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