By Dave Anderson:
We are a couple of days out from the 2010 Pennsylvania Primary and there are numerous interesting races going on. Here are a couple of very non-scientific observations from watching TV, seeing who is advertising and on what themes, and general buzz.
- Dan Onorato will win the right to have his ass kicked by Attorney General Corbett in the governor's race.
- Corbett, the highly probable Republican nominee, is already running ads in general election mode. His entire campaign is premised on his ability to clean up the bums and asses in Harrisburg as evidenced by the multiple political corruption indictments and convictions his office has already secured.
- PA-12 is getting interesting. The DCCC is on the air consistently with a hard-hitting negative ad against Tim Burns, the Republican nominee for the special election to replace Murtha. The centerpiece of the ad is accusing Tim Burns of supporting a national sales tax and then highlighting how that will increase the price of groceries, gas and doctor's appointments. I've seen less GOP advertising up on the air. The polling shows Critz with a late lead. I'm surprised. I wrote this seat off the moment Murtha died. PA-12 is a rapidly trending GOP district in Appalachia, not an area where Democrats have been doing well over the past few years.
- Now what to believe about Sestak v. Specter. I think the Susquehanna poll that has Sestak up by 9 points is optimistic. That margin would imply that Sestak has vacuumed up almost every undecided (believable) and knocked off three or four percent of Specter's steady-state coalition. My gut feel is Sestak will win by five to seven points. I don't think the party machinery is strong enough to deliver for Specter as there is a significant difference between doing your job and getting the job done. A good chunk of the party machine in Pittsburgh and Philly are made up of people like me who may do their jobs, but won't go the extra mile to push Specter over the finish line.
- And now talking about the local party machine, as far as I know, my race to win Swissvale-8 Dem. Committee male member is still on track. I'll most likely be part of the party machine as of next week. Keep that in mind when assuming a monolithic machine pushing its favored candidates over the top. There is a significant split in the activist and doorknocker base.
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