Somali stasis

By Dave Anderson:

In 2008, piracy off the Somali coast became a medium size news story.  The International Maritime Bureau has the data:

The 2008 figures surpass all figures for hijacked vessels and hostages taken recorded by the PRC since it began its worldwide reporting function in 1992. In 2008 there was a worldwide total of 293 incidents of piracy against ships, which is up more than 11% from 2007 when there were 263 incidents reported...

The increase is attributed to the number of attacks in the Gulf of Aden with 111 incidents reported on the east coast of Somalia and the Gulf of Aden. The rise peaked in September with 19 attacks. In October and November there were 15 and 16 vessels attacked respectively. This is an increase of nearly 200% from 2007.

In late 2008 and early 2009, a significant portion of the global long range deployable naval assets began to patrol the Somali littoral.  Piracy increased significantly in quantity of attacks, dispersion of attacks and sophistication of attacks.  Anti-piracy tactics have become more aggressive in 2010 as more resources have been devoted to Somalia.  Additionally the US and the European Union are still propping up the Transitional Federal Government and its tenous hold on a couple blocks in Mogadishu.  Mercanaries are rumored to be running on the ground anti-piracy operations.  Galhran at Information Dissemination has the results data:

IMB, from 2009:

The total number of incidents attributed to the Somali pirates stands at 217 with 47 vessels hijacked and 867 crewmembers taken hostage...

IMB, from 2010:

Incidents Reported for Somalia:
Total Incidents: 210
Total Hijackings: 45
Total Hostages : 948

Those statistics for 2010 are as of December 22, 2010

Since the recent data close-out there have been another half dozen attacks and at least a pair of successful hi-jackings. 

Again, the range and scope of pirate activity has increased in quantity and sophistication as learning by doing continues to occur.  Close blockade has not worked, distant covering forces and offensive sweeps have not worked well enough, close convoy escort has protected the convoyed ships but naval assets are limited in their ability to cover all major shipping lanes. 

The one solution that has the potential to work is to get a land-side force that is not inclined to tolerate piracy in control of the pirate ports.  That government is not the TFG in Mogadishu.  That government could potentially be the Islamist militias as the pirates have been intefering with their cash cows of collecting port fees.  However that recognizing that reality is a domestic political impossibility so a second tier problem will continue to suck up most of the West's deployable naval assets and no solution will actually work.