By Steve Hynd
Not too long ago, Rick Perry was appealing to God to help America - and in particular to send some rain to his drought-striken state, where wildfires have burned over 1.6 million acres of land and destroyed over 1,000 homes and farm buildings. God must hate Rick Perry very much because the Climate Prediction Center, part of the U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, issued a gloomy prediction today.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dreaded La Nina weather anomaly, blamed for both drought and record snowfall in the U.S., has returned and will garner strength during the coming winter, the Climate Prediction Center forecast Thursday.
"While it is not yet clear what the ultimate strength of this La Nina will be, La Nina conditions have returned and are expected to gradually strengthen and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter (of) 2011-12," the CPC said in a monthly update.
It said waters in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean cooled in August, and the "oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect the return of La Nina conditions.
Last month, the Houston Chronicle had this piece on the implications of another la Nina year:
"I've started telling anyone who's interested that it's likely much of Texas will still be in severe drought this time next summer, with water supply implications even worse than those we are now experiencing," said John Nielsen-Gammon, the state climatologist and a Texas A&M University professor.
...If the drought persists into next year, the state of Texas won't have the buffer of nearly full water reserves.
After a fairly wet 2010, Texas entered this year with water reservoirs used to supplement water supplies at 81 percent of capacity.
As we all know, Perry has declared himself a global warming sceptic. Now whether increased la Nina activity is itself a product of global awrming is still uncertain, scientists believe, although there's a broad consensus that climate change will make weather patterns more intense, with arid areas becoming drier while wet areas get wetter and stormier. But there's certainly a role played by global warming in the arid Southwests's droughts, which have so far cost Texas alone more than $5 billion. According to Neilson-Gammon.
The main known effect of global warming so far on the drought has been through temperatures. With temperatures both globally and in Texas running 1-2 F warmer in the past decade than they were several decades ago, it�s reasonable to say that global warming has made this drought 1-2 F hotter than it would have been otherwise. This means that evaporation has been enhanced, soils and plants dried out faster, streamflow declined faster, and temperature records were easier to break.
Looking forward, if global temperatures continue to rise but Texas precipitation stays the same, Texas droughts would nonetheless become more severe because of the warmer temperatures.
Under Gov. Perry, Texas slashed state funding for the volunteer fire departments that protect most of the state from wildfires by 75% in 2011, which is why he's had to go cap-in-hand to the federal Government for so much emergency assistance, despite his negative rhetoric about such assistance. That opens Perry and other Republicans to charges of hypocrisy.
The rising costs of the Texas wildfires are raising the stakes for a looming political debate over the federalization of disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency does not have the money to fully cover the costs of hurricane Irene, and Perry has joined other Republicans in demanding offsetting budget cuts for any increases in federal disaster aid. But the Los Angeles Times points out: "They have yet to make that argument in Texas."
With La Nina and droughts set to continue for another, even drier, year, Perry and other GOP candidates in the presidential race will have to defend their climate change denialism and hypocrisy over federal emergency aid against a backdrop of burning homes and businesses. Maybe they should rethink their positions instead - or at least rethink the efficacy of only relying on prayer to solve these problems.
ReplyDeleteNot too long ago, Rick Perry was appealing to God to help America - and in particular to send some rain to his drought-striken state, where wildfires have burned over 1.6 million acres of land and destroyed over 1,000 homes and farm buildings. God must hate Rick Perry very much because the Climate Prediction Center, part of the U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, issued a gloomy prediction today.
No doubt, Perry will soon be blaming lazy, unemployed Texans for the lack of rain, since they have far more time to pray for a continuation of the drought than productive, employed Texans have to pray for rain.
I like the title. The rain Nazi, aka god for the religious or Mother Nature to the rest of us, kicking Perry out of line.
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