By Steve Hynd
In Afghanistan, it's already Thursday which means the day's voting in the presidential election has already begun. Most obervers expect the vote to go to a second, runoff, vote, with polls showing Karzai the frontrunner although not with enough support to win on the first vote. His likely opponent in any runoff contest will be former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah. The question is, can either capture enough of the Pashtun vote to make the election seem middling legitimate, despite the widespread vote-rigging and corruption that's been reported? Especially amid violence that the Afghan government has asked the media not to report.
Douglas Saunders writes that the Pashtuns, who make up 40% of Afghanistan's population, are upset with Karzai because he's been concentrating on putting together a coalition of their ethnic enemies (like Abdul Rashid Dostum). But neither do the Pashtun favor his rivals, and with the Taliban in control of almost half of rural Afghanistan, resurgent in the North where allied forces are largely unprepared for intense fighting, and with 440+ polling stations unable to open because of the threat of violence, the worry in Washington DC is that "non of the above" wins on the ballot...i.e. the Taliban. That would lead to a serious increase in violence post-election. Then again, so would Karzai's rivals making accusations of Karzai cheating and withdrawing from any co-operation with kabul, as they've threatened already to do.
Alex Thurston is predicting a bumpy ride, and he's sure to be correct.
Update: Be sure to check out The Guardian's guide to the election.
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